Friday, April 9, 2021

Soa Predictive Analytics Exam

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    Over the next few years we will be taking all of that feedback and incorporating it into new activities specifically designed to engage our newest and youngest members. Hofbeck: To increase participation, we recognize the need to build more modern digital and cutting-edge tools that will specifically appeal to our newer FSAs. Q: Great. Glickman: We spent a large part of researching how other professions and educational providers best engage with their constituencies so we can incorporate the best of those models into our educational process. Also, we want to create on-demand delivery environments that feature smaller, but more frequent and timely educational materials for all to enjoy. We have developed an in-depth Predictive Analytics Certificate for post-FSA education that usually takes about six months to complete and culminates with an intensive two-day final assessment.

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    We are also looking at introducing other new certificate programs. Some of the ideas that have been discussed include a program focused on business skills and another on communication skills. There has even been a suggestion to start creating sub-certificate programs that take less time but allow actuaries to improve their skill sets and demonstrate, both within and outside our traditional industries, their abilities beyond core actuarial skills. The goal of this program is to give members the opportunity to engage with and learn from other actuaries by sharing experiences and talking about their journey within the profession.

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    Feedback from this pilot program will help determine whether it will become a permanent, full-scale offering. Does anyone have observations on how tech improvements have affected Professional Development? And then they follow some of the actuaries who are there. Wurzburger: Let me first talk about the Long-Term Care Tech Summit, because that really was an innovative offering near the end of It went through a lot of different phases and planning, but in the end, it aligned nicely with the partnership we entered into with Plug and Play. The event was intended to be small and intimate, so we capped attendance at a relatively small number.

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    But as we created the program, we prioritized the experience for the virtual audience. We made sure to have a high-quality camera and a professional-looking stage with lighting geared to that virtual experience. We knew that if it looked good to the virtual audience, it would also look good to people in the room. We had a dedicated emcee in the room for the live audience and a dedicated online emcee. The feedback from this fast-paced, one-day event was really favorable, in particular, the feedback from the virtual audience.

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    So that was encouraging. There was a lot of buzz there about all the interesting ideas that were being thrown about. The energy was exciting. Q: Those are the words I kept hearing from people: energy, buzz, dynamic. It was palpable what people felt there. It was really different in a positive way. Eaton: Yes, I really enjoyed getting to play startup actuary for eight hours. In , Shawna Meyer, a long-term care colleague, and I had an idea that the LTC Section could benefit from getting the advice and opinions of experts outside the insurance industry.

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    So we convened a one-day symposium with eight or 10 people around a table. These were people outside of long-term care insurance but still in the long-term care space. We had a handful of topics, including how technology will impact long-term care providers, the future of actual care and care delivery, and how that may evolve in the next decade.

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    It was captured through a recording and notes, and we were able to share the results of that conversation with everyone. We also had quite a few online viewers, who were paying attention the entire day, and we received very positive feedback from them as well. Wurzburger: I also want to mention the Predictive Analytics Symposium, which occurred in September in Philadelphia. We had just under attendees, and for the bulk of the symposium, there were four concurrent sessions for each time slot. It was a very successful event, and we got a lot of favorable feedback from it. We are planning another one that is currently scheduled for September 24 and 25, either as a virtual meeting or a combination of in-person and virtual events. Moving on in that vein, we have already seen the COVID pandemic impact some of our other major meetings.

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    The group in charge of that event pivoted quickly to a virtual format where, on the days when that meeting was going to take place, there will be virtual sessions that people can attend from home. One of the days will be dedicated to sessions on life insurance and the other day to sessions on annuity, which together should be relevant to the majority of people who would have attended the event in person. So I definitely have to tip my cap to the folks who got in motion so quickly to put that in place. This is not just two days of webcasts. There will still be a keynote speaker at the beginning, and there will be a number of concurrent session blocks.

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    We are having a virtual fun run. We will do our best to virtually recreate some of the networking that people seem to love about the Health Meeting. In addition, we will have a part webcast series that extends from shortly after the Health Meeting into September. The series will run roughly once a week, with a few weeks off for holidays or other reasons.

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    Each day will have a theme; for example, one day will cover Medicaid, and on that day, there will be three webcasts on Medicaid. There will be ten days because there are so many subspecialties within the health practice area, and this way, there will be something for everyone. Q: Wonderful. Why has there been such an emphasis on predictive analytics, and how does this benefit both members and candidates? Glickman: The insurance industry, has started to fully engage with data analytics, so predictive analytics, data analytics and artificial intelligence are all areas where we know actuaries will need to build their skills. We started with core predictive analytics, because if nothing else, insurance companies already have a wealth of data, both individually and collectively, that they can analyze. We need to be sure actuaries have the skills they need, not only to compete, but to enhance their qualifications to obtain management level positions within insurance companies.

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    They need to be able to take and enhance the work data scientists are performing and, essentially, add to them the actuarial skill for looking beyond the raw data to figure out how the conclusions best fit into the applicable business environment. Perhaps, even more importantly, they need to make sure that these new tools are used responsibly and properly by the insurers who employ them. Hofbeck: Just as a reminder of what predictive analytics is: predictive analytics combines increased computing power with new sources of data, new models and new algorithms to predict things a little better than we did before.

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    We understand the regulatory environment. We understand the data that are available within insurance companies and other organizations, and we understand the ethical implications. This is why the SOA wants to ensure that we have the skills needed to build, implement, use, monitor, and explain predictive models.

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    Q: Robert, can you tell us what candidates and employers have said about the predictive analytics module for candidates? The candidates really like this opportunity. It gives them practical knowledge. They are using R Studio, which for actuaries is a non-traditional program that is becoming more and more standard.

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    Candidates really appreciate the interactive nature of getting into these models, and the online module format is conducive to serving up a piece of information, letting candidates process it and play around with it themselves. The students or candidates are now armed with the ability to open up a predictive model, plug in a new dataset, get model results and output, fit models. But now employers see actuaries and actuarial students empowered with these new tools. Eaton: This program mirrors the examination that candidates take and is ideal for folks who already have their credentials—maybe five or 10 years out.

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    The program is workshop-based and very rigorous, consistent with the SOA credentialing program, and participants learn in the same way that the candidates taking the exam might do. The final exam is a two-day event. I jumped at this opportunity to be part of the pilot program, and it delivered in full. A lot of models were prepared for us, and the education by Dr. Stuart Klugman and others is top-notch. I was absolutely blown away by what our members learned during that program and what they returned on their final exams. They certainly rivaled anyone I would have hired who had a deep background in predictive analytics. It was highly impressive. I would certainly encourage anyone who is interested in predictive analytics to take it.

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    Hofbeck: Technology companies, startups and entrepreneurs are developing new ways to offer insurance to consumers and streamlining many aspects of the traditional insurance process. We actuaries have deep expertise in many areas that InsurTechs may not. We have an InsurTech Advisory Taskforce, which has outlined a plan that has been approved by the Board and focuses on three key objectives.

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    While meeting all of the learning requirements of Exam PA, this page study guide gives you data science and machine learning training. You will learn how to get your data into R, clean it, visualize it, and use models to derive business value. The chapters on R-programming cover the foundational concepts with a focus on modern data science applications. We give you time-saving coding tips and ways of checking your answers within RStudio. All of the statistical theory is explained, from linear regression to gradient boosted trees, and examples are provided of each model that you can reproduce. Join the Online Course We are thankful to all of the reviewers, guest editors, and past exam-takers who have helped to improve this book. We strive to make this study guide as thorough as possible, but a passive-learning, textbook format is not as efficient as giving you hands-on practice questions and access to live instructors where you can get answers to your questions in real-time.

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    After all, our goal is to reduce your study time as much as possible. The online course gives gives you everthing needed to pass. Why is this free when other study manuals cost hundreds of dollars? How many study hours are needed? The exact number of hours needed varies by individual. Is English your native language? Have you taken SRM? Do you have prior R experience? Are you a confident communicator? All of these factors play a role. That being said, planning a study schedule for PA is not different than for any of the other exams. You might have important deadlines, travel plans, or other obligations which need to be accomodated.

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    The first was the Statistics for Risk Modeling Exam, which is a multiple-choice exam offered three times per year where candidates learn key concepts that underly all modeling activities, as well as the details of time series, generalized linear models, decision trees, clustering and principal components. As a multiple-choice exam, its purpose is to ensure candidates understand the technical details of these methods before applying them in the next component.

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    This enhanced education not only ensures that our new ASAs have skills that are directly relevant to actuarial work, but it also provides an opportunity to work on less structured problems that more closely reflect actuarial work in the business environment. The second requirement was the Predictive Analytics Exam, which is the first SOA exam to use advanced tools in a fully proctored setting. During this exam, candidates have access to Microsoft Word and Excel, and statistical software R via RStudio , which are used to analyze a business problem using a realistic data set. Unlike previous exams, there is no unique best solution as is true of modeling in general. Candidate success is based on making appropriate choices and providing a concise justification for these choices. In this module, among other things, candidates use R to fit time series models to financial data. Each cohort of candidates spends about five months working through an e-Learning program and then appears virtually, these days at a closing seminar followed by an assessment where their newly acquired skills are applied to a business problem.

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